THIS AVALANCHE ADVISORY EXPIRED ON February 2, 2019 @ 7:00 am
Avalanche Advisory published on February 1, 2019 @ 7:00 am
Issued by Eric Morgan - Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center

Selkirks/Cabinets

bottom line

Snowpack was very stable in the Selkirks yesterday and avalanches are unlikely to occur, however we did find the elusive surface hoar a foot deep on an East aspect at 6000 feet. We did not find it on South or North aspects and have not seen it in other areas of the southern Selkirks.

How to read the advisory

Selkirks/Cabinets

How to read the advisory

Snowpack was very stable in the Selkirks yesterday and avalanches are unlikely to occur, however we did find the elusive surface hoar a foot deep on an East aspect at 6000 feet. We did not find it on South or North aspects and have not seen it in other areas of the southern Selkirks.

2. Moderate

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Above Treeline
Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

1. Low

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Near Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

1. Low

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Below Treeline
Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
    Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slab
  • Type ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Currently I am calling it moderate on steep slopes >35 on N and E aspects since we know there are areas consisting of surface hoar a foot deep. One may find this in the wrong area and it is hard to predict where. Use caution and do frequent tests as you venture into more extreme terrain and assess on your own through the weekends storm and wind events. We had reports throughout the forecast area last week of a few small slides up Trestle creek.

advisory discussion

Friday could see 2-4 inches rolling in through the day which may not be enough to create much trouble, however I am very concerned on the heavy snow that will come on top of the pack afterwards that will be warm and accompanied by breezy conditions which will create windloading and fresh storm slabs on the current layer of surface hoar, wind crust and suncrust. It remains to be seen on how well the bonds become but big change with alot of red flags on the way through the outlook period. Let's see how this next series of systems develop and make good choices and watch for red flags of increased winds, precipitation, and temperatures.

recent observations

After this weeks travels in the Selkirks, the Primary concern will be the surface hoar and wind and sun affected snow that is widespread all of the way up to upper elevations that will potentially have 12 plus inches on it into the weekend. Be aware of the isolated areas of buried surface hoar and the new coming snow on the current snow surface! Wind loading will also be a factor which will come after the first round of snow which may bury the surface hoar. We had ECT24 on surface hoar. It took a bit to go but it went. Expect the new snow to bring this alive.

Weather and CURRENT CONDITIONS
weather summary
Friday
Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 31. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow. Low around 30. Windy, with a south wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 33. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 24. Southeast wind 11 to 16 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow. Low around 9. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible
Disclaimer

Avalanche conditions change for better or worse continually. Backcountry travelers should be prepared to assess current conditions for themselves, plan their routes of travel accordingly, and never travel alone. Backcountry travelers can reduce their exposure to avalanche hazards by utilizing timbered trails and ridge routes and by avoiding open and exposed terrain with slope angles of 30 degrees or more. Backcountry travelers should carry the necessary avalanche rescue equipment such as a shovel, avalanche probe or probe ski poles, a rescue beacon and a well-equipped first aid kit.  For a recorded version of the Avalanche Advisory call (208)765-7323.