Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLarge
Upper elevations and steep open terrain are the areas where one could get things to slide. The pack is still pretty shallow. Now is a good time to start studying the pack and watching how things change and react to future storms. We have three persistent weak layers with an atmospheric river heading our way starting TOMORROW. Hollow facets on the bottom and buried surface hoar within. Don't get caught during quick changes to the pack. Time will heal.
Big changes ahead....lot's of weakness but potential for alot of snow to get us caught up in snowpack. This has potential to heal up our weak layers but in the thick of it things could be touchy.
On a West aspect in the Selkirks I found three feet of snow not much different than the past week. Good sliding conditions down to 5300 foot elevation. No propagation but alot of weak layers. There was not much of a slab where I was but windslabs exist in unsheltered areas. Only one surface hoar layer popped out for me and basal facets are widespread. On a north face there's a little more snow and two layers of buried surface hoar within. But currently there was not much of a slab on top as the snow was pretty nice and soft.
Sunny becoming cloudy with temperatures in the low 20's and SW winds 21 mph. The next significant precipitation is expected to arrive Wednesday evening and to continue into the weekend with an atmospheric river. Read in to the noaa discussions for in depth detail on this event and consider what it means to you.
Avalanche conditions change for better or worse continually. Backcountry travelers should be prepared to assess current conditions for themselves, plan their routes of travel accordingly, and never travel alone. Backcountry travelers can reduce their exposure to avalanche hazards by utilizing timbered trails and ridge routes and by avoiding open and exposed terrain with slope angles of 30 degrees or more. Backcountry travelers should carry the necessary avalanche rescue equipment such as a shovel, avalanche probe or probe ski poles, a rescue beacon and a well-equipped first aid kit. For a recorded version of the Avalanche Advisory call (208)765-7323.
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