Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLarge
Currently I am calling it moderate on steep slopes >35 on N and E aspects since we know there are areas consisting of surface hoar a foot deep. One may find this in the wrong area and it is hard to predict where. Use caution and do frequent tests as you venture into more extreme terrain and assess on your own through the weekends storm and wind events. We had reports throughout the forecast area last week of a few small slides up Trestle creek.
Friday could see 2-4 inches rolling in through the day which may not be enough to create much trouble, however I am very concerned on the heavy snow that will come on top of the pack afterwards that will be warm and accompanied by breezy conditions which will create windloading and fresh storm slabs on the current layer of surface hoar, wind crust and suncrust. It remains to be seen on how well the bonds become but big change with alot of red flags on the way through the outlook period. Let's see how this next series of systems develop and make good choices and watch for red flags of increased winds, precipitation, and temperatures.
After this weeks travels in the Selkirks, the Primary concern will be the surface hoar and wind and sun affected snow that is widespread all of the way up to upper elevations that will potentially have 12 plus inches on it into the weekend. Be aware of the isolated areas of buried surface hoar and the new coming snow on the current snow surface! Wind loading will also be a factor which will come after the first round of snow which may bury the surface hoar. We had ECT24 on surface hoar. It took a bit to go but it went. Expect the new snow to bring this alive.
Avalanche conditions change for better or worse continually. Backcountry travelers should be prepared to assess current conditions for themselves, plan their routes of travel accordingly, and never travel alone. Backcountry travelers can reduce their exposure to avalanche hazards by utilizing timbered trails and ridge routes and by avoiding open and exposed terrain with slope angles of 30 degrees or more. Backcountry travelers should carry the necessary avalanche rescue equipment such as a shovel, avalanche probe or probe ski poles, a rescue beacon and a well-equipped first aid kit. For a recorded version of the Avalanche Advisory call (208)765-7323.
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